Foresights

As we return to work after the Christmas period, many of us are setting professional and personal new years’ resolutions and our priorities for the year ahead. Ministers in the UK Government are doing the same. 

2025 is a key milestone in the UK’s journey to net zero.  The UK is legally bound to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.  This is a mere 25 years away.  The UK also has a commitment to meet 100% of electricity demand by 2030 from clean power - only five years away. 

Our international allies may well retrench from this 2050 commitment, but it is one which the UK Prime Minister (through his ever-passionate Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, Rt Hon Ed Miliband MP) are determined to keep.

Planning reform and funding is key if the UK is to get to net zero on time.  The UK’s track record of building and upgrading key infrastructure, in peace time in the last hundred years or so has tested the “hare and tortoise” fable to destruction.  The UK has largely been the tortoise – with occasional flashes of the hare. 

To get to net zero on time the UK must upgrade its key infrastructure – not least its energy networks.   

• Specifically, the UK must revolutionise the National electricity Grid network to enable the deployment of more renewable energy technology. It essentially needs to move from a centralised system designed around a limited number of large fossil fuel power stations to a more decentralised system where a multitude of renewable generating plants feed in.

• It must also build lots (the UK Government estimates it needs to build around 300,000 new homes per year to meet address housing shortages) of greener warmer new homes and retrofit older homes with better insulation. All homes – old and new – need to be heated by greener heating solutions such as air source and ground source heat pumps, green hydrogen and solar panels.

• The UK must also move to electric vehicles for both commercial and private transportation (for land, sea and eventually air).

• It must also complete the roll-out of ultra-fast fibre broadband to all parts of the country.

 

Planning Reform is Key

The UK's planning system is a major bottleneck for infrastructure projects. Long approval times, complex regulations, fierce resistance by NIMBY groups and inconsistent and unpredictable decisions made by Councillors on local planning authorities Planning Committees, have long-hindered progress on new infrastructure projects in critical areas like renewable energy deployment, new warmer homes development and broadband roll out.  The Labour Government has confirmed a set of sweeping planning changes she wants to implement across local councils. This includes mandatory training for councillors who serve on local authority planning committees.

The UK’s approach to planning, constructing, and upgrading key national infrastructure throughout the 20th century and into the first quarter of the 21st has severely test “slow and steady wins the race.” 

The construction of the UK’s National Grid commenced in the early 1930s and was effectively completed by 1939.  By then around two thirds of all the homes in the UK were connected to the Grid.  It took another decade for most homes to be connected.   Even today not every home in the UK is on the Grid.  Ditto the Gas Grid.  Tortoise behaviours here.  But it was a world first.

Crossrail’s journey from inception to obtaining planning permission was protracted. The initial concept for Crossrail is said to date back to the mid nineteenth century.  Plans for a “super tube” were put forward more formally in 1941.  Outline plans were published again in the 1970s, but it wasn't until the early 1990s serious and detailed planning began. The Crossrail Bill was introduced to Parliament in 2005, and after extensive scrutiny and debate, it received Royal Assent in July 2008. So, from the early 1990s to 2008, it took roughly 16 years to secure the necessary planning permissions and legislative approvals.  It took a further 14 years to build, from 2008 to 2022.  Crossrail, now known as the Elizabeth Line, started carrying passengers on 24 May 2022.   This seems glacial not even tortoise behaviour.  Now built and carrying passengers it seems well used and liked by commuters and visitors alike. 

The formal planning application for a fifth passenger terminal at Heathrow (T5) was lodged on 17 February 1993.  A public inquiry into the proposals began on 16 May 1995 and lasted nearly four years, ending on 17 March 1999. The inquiry, based at the Renaissance Hotel Heathrow, was the longest planning inquiry ever held in the UK.  Finally, more than eight years after the initial planning application, the then Secretary of State for Transport, Rt Hon Stephen Byers MP, announced on 20 November 2001 the British government's decision to grant planning permission for the building of T5 Heathrow. Construction began in July 2006. T5 opened on 27 March 2008.  This seems a very “slow and steady” project.  Now built it is well used and seems to be well liked. 

Before the de-facto ban on onshore wind in England, most onshore wind farm applications took around five to six years to get approved.  Then another couple to build. Too slow a tortoise in a climate crisis?  I fear so.

Most new home development planning applications (even modest 100 home developments) take at least three years to get approved anywhere in the country.  Longer for larger developments. Then another two or three to build. Bit tortoise and led to a shortage of homes in the UK, inflated prices and the current “housing crisis”.  The tortoise has lost this race it seems. 

The roll-out of ultra-fast fibre broadband in the UK commenced in earnest in 2018.  Seven years ago.  This is a tortoise performance and losing this race to the likes of Japan and Singapore where fibre is available to more buildings.  As of June 2023, in Japan approximately 86% of all broadband connections are fibre-based. In Singapore around 75% of households have fully fibre-based broadband connections. By contrast in the UK fibre connections constitute about 20% of total broadband connections and subscriptions. 

The second world war lasted six years and saw the invention and roll out of penicillin, RADAR, superglue, microwave ovens, synthetic rubber, artificial mulberry harbours, jet fighters and the atomic bomb.  A very hare performance.  And this time the hare won!

Like World War II, the UK’s, and indeed the world’s response to Covid 19 proved the UK state, and indeed other states around the world, can act very quickly when it is an emergency.

In both World War II and the Covid 19 pandemic steely political will and everyone from all parts of society pulling together saw us through. 

To hare ahead the UK needs to streamline its planning process to:

• Accelerate Renewable Energy Projects: The National Grid requires significant upgrades to accommodate the increasing integration of wind, solar, and battery storage systems. Without an efficient planning framework, delays in approving these projects will derail the UK’s journey to net-zero. As well as an efficient planning framework the planning system needs to be properly resourced so there is sufficient resources available to determine renewable projects in a timely fashion. In short, we need more planners and the funding the Labour have so far announced, which equate to roughly one extra new planner per local authority is not nearly enough.
• Expand Superfast Broadband Access: Fast and reliable internet is no longer a luxury – it’s vital to improve the UK’s connectivity and productivity and so it can be a leader in the fourth industrial revolution and leverage its advantages in tech. Yet many rural and remote areas (as well as central London areas) remain chronically underserved due to the slow pace of superfast broadband roll out. Simplified planning rules can expedite fibre installation across the country.
• Deliver data centres which are not just critical for the digital economy but also for broader economic growth and innovation in the UK for the following reasons:

1. Economic Contribution: Data centres contribute significantly to the UK's economy, adding approximately £4.7 billion in Gross Value Added (GVA) annually. They also support around 43,500 jobs and generate £640 million in tax revenue.

2. Digital Infrastructure: They form the backbone of the UK's digital infrastructure, enabling businesses to operate efficiently and innovate. This is essential for sectors like finance, healthcare, and retail, which rely heavily on digital services.

3. Growth Potential: The demand for data centres is expected to grow rapidly, with projections of a 10 - 20% annual increase. This growth could contribute an additional £44 billion to the UK economy by 2035.

4. Job Creation: The expansion of data centres is set to create thousands of high-quality jobs, both in construction and operational roles.

5. Support for Emerging Technologies: Data centres are vital for the development and deployment of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things.

6. Regional Development: They play a key role in regional economic development, with successful projects in areas like West London, Greater Manchester and Cardiff.

The UK needs more data centres to maintain its position as a top five global leader in tech.  They need to be given planning permission swiftly.  They also need cheap and green power.  The key point is the Labour Government should promote synergies between data centre developers and renewable developers.  A data centre with planning permission, without the ability to connect into the Grid is useless unless it has a private renewable electricity source.

• Deliver New Homes: The UK’s housing crisis demands urgent attention. Reforming planning regulations can enable the construction of affordable, energy-efficient homes that meet modern environmental standards.

The Labour Government elected on 4 July last year, seems to “get it” and recognises the centrality of speeding up the planning process: It is currently consulting on significant reforms to the UK's planning system aimed at streamlining the process and to address the housing crisis and build key infrastructure quicker. 

To ensure the planning reforms protect the UK’s admirable record of protecting legitimate local interests and nature, they need to be done carefully and with the support and help of the planning industry and the planning inspectors. 

 

Innovative Funding Models: A Catalyst for Change

However, reforming the planning system alone is not enough.  Adequate funding is essential to bring these projects to fruition. Initiatives like Great British Energy (GB Energy) and the UK’s National Wealth Fund represent bold steps towards mobilising resources for transformative projects:

• GB Energy: Labour’s new state-owned energy development company, GB Energy can drive investment in renewable energy projects, helping to upgrade the National Grid and scale up battery storage to address the intermittency issue. By focusing on long-term sustainability, the UK can reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and enhance energy security in a time of volatile gas prices.

• National Wealth Fund: This fund provides a mechanism to channel investments into infrastructure that benefits the entire nation. The Fund has £27.8bn to drive investment and growth across the UK. By targeting broadband expansion, housing development, and green energy, the fund can ensure that resources are allocated strategically to maximise societal impact.

 

Supply pinch point

• One further constraint for more renewables coming on stream is the supply chain: The UK, along with other front runners in the race to net zero, already have a big demand for renewable technologies and associated infrastructure such as inverters and transformers. It is likely that demand will outstrip supply soon.
• There is an opportunity for the Government to act now to get ahead of this. For example, Wilson Power Solutions is a UK based – Leeds headquartered – company producing utility scale transformers.  The Government needs to support such companies to ensure the UK can hare ahead.

 

Accelerating the UK’s journey to net zero

So, as the UK Government sets its new year’s resolutions, in terms of getting to net zero by 2050, it must become perhaps both the hare and the tortoise. 

It must stand firm if a Trump led US administration reneges on its commitment to net zero and get on with reforming the planning system and leverage innovative funding models.

If it does this perhaps the UK will get to net zero by 2050 – or whisper it, perhaps even sooner...

 

 

ENDS

Chris Kelsey is a director at specialist net zero comms consultancy Impact and Influence. He loves to focus on net-zero and infrastructure renewal and is fascinated by the intersection between planning, funding and net zero. He worked on the Campaign for Crossrail and the Campaign for R3 at Heathrow.